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Thursday, January 16, 2025
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Friday, January 10, 2025
Super Wild Card Weekend Picks, NFL Playoffs
Los Angeles Chargers/Houston Texans: it still remains fathomable if not potentially unlikely that Justin Herbert and the L.A Chargers will make a playoff run some day, to make up for the ways in which you never hear anything about them, even though they consistently win big regular season games. The Chargers have only won one playoff game in the last 10 playoff years, and are no doubt seeking to alter that statistic, the task by no means easy to victoriously fulfill. Houston played well enough this year, handing Buffalo one of their only losses, they also kept it close with Kansas City, Green Bay, and Detroit, while losing big to Baltimore and Minnesota. When they played Baltimore on Christmas I was hoping to see a closer game than their matchup last January, but the Ravens still convincingly dominated, which made me think they hadn't improved enough. Houston's won 3 of their last 5 versus the Chargers but L.A holds a 6 to 3 lifetime advantage, winning their most recent game in 2022, while finishing with one more win in a much tougher division this year. The Texan's offensive and defensive stats are dead even they let in and scored 372, while the Chargers scored 100 more than they let in, generating better stats on both sides of the ball. Houston did win a huge playoff game last season when C. J. Stroud was a rookie no less, and they're playing at home again this upcoming Saturday, which may give them a slight advantage. But I find I can't overlook the Super Bowl-less Chargers especially since this weekend they aren't playing the Broncos. Even if Houston has never won it too, I'm still picking defiant L.A.
Pittsburgh Steelers/Baltimore Ravens: generally cool to see division rivals face off in the playoffs, the Ravens and Steelers no strangers to each other often playing some of the best regular season games. The Steelers have been good forever and the Ravens have played quite well for many years, it's exciting to see them playing again this Saturday, hoping it's another incredibly close one. Oddly, while I thought their regular season numbers would have indeed been much closer, it looks like Pittsburgh has clearly dominated, winning 4 of the last 5. Unless there's a problem with the Football Database, the stats should be legit, I'm sorry for the foolish doubt casting, I just don't understand how Baltimore could have lost so many times. Pittsburgh has actually won 8 of their last 10 - this is crazy - the Ravens have been crazy good for years, it's like the Penguins vs. the Capitals, Pittsburgh just has their number. These stats are at times reversed in the playoffs and the team that often wins finds themselves losing (I actually got the Penguins/Capitals stats from the playoffs, I don't know much about their regular season tallies), or engaged in a really tight game that delivers right down to the wire. The Steelers have lost 4 in a row albeit their schedule was super intense, while the Ravens have won their last 4, their schedule somewhat less daunting (not much though [one of their wins was against Pittsburgh]). Baltimore did lose to the Raiders and Browns this year, so it seems that at times they don't take their opponents seriously, but they also beat Buffalo by a lopsided margin, and the Commanders, Chargers, Bucs, Bengals (2), and Texans. Both teams are battle hardened from tough schedules they've both been playing playoff football all season long. The Ravens are at home and have better stats though. Picking Baltimore once again.
Denver Broncos/Buffalo Bills: so happy to see the Broncos back in the playoffs! 🐎 Led by Mr. Bo Nix and an all-star defence! Pickin' Denver by 17. 🏈
Green Bay Packers/Philadelphia Eagles: I imagine there are a lot of teams that other teams don't want to play this postseason, and at times they're stuck playing each other, with no alternative but to give 1,000%. The Eagles competed for top seed and were super impressive in 2024, they almost swept the NFC East, and defeated the Packers in Week 1. Nevertheless, they may have 3 more wins than Green Bay but their points for is only slightly better, the Pack having let in 35 more, that's not a huge difference on defence either. The NFC East had some good teams this year but the NFC North was one of the best divisions ever (the AFC West was also pretty good), seeing two teams compete for top conference seed in the final week, with a third team making the playoffs after winning 11 games. They met for the first time in the playoffs in 1960, when the Eagles defeated the Pack for the NFL Championship, Philadelphia winning again in 2003, Green Bay upholding victory in 2010. They haven't met very often in January considering how well both these teams have played in my lifetime (and how old they are), which adds some excitement to the game, although it'd still be pretty thrilling either way. The Eagles have lost three Wild Card games since winning the Super Bowl in 2017 (winning 1), while the Packers are 4 and 1 in the Wild Card round since winning the Super Bowl in 2010, this Sunday's matchup still a whole new ball game, independent of season or strategy. Both teams surprised a lot of people last year, Green Bay with a big unexpected win versus Dallas, Philadelphia with a surprising loss to Tampa Bay, a lot of these stats are looking to herald the Pack, which means the Eagles may be a safe bet. Bearing the 2024 season in mind, they both had outstanding teams, and will be exceedingly difficult to beat, at home or on the challenging road. It's tough to decide, but when that happens, why not stick with the Pack? Picking Green Bay on the road. I'd rather see them lose to Detroit.
Washington Commanders/Tampa Bay Buccaneers: sometimes there's a little bit of übermagic that accompanies the NFL playoffs, for definitive proof you need look no further than the compelling Commanders/Bucs game this upcoming Sunday. Washington has the better record and they played in a tougher division, but Tampa still scored a ton which demonstrated they can effectively move the ball. The Bucs in fact scored 30 or more points 8 times this season, while the Commanders almost matched them at 7, imagine the playoffs had taken place in September and October, could have been a completely different ball game. Tampa also handed Detroit one of their only losses this year and took Kansas City to overtime, not to mention a 37 to 20 victory over Washington in week 1, long ago, but still interrogative (playoffs in September and October except for week 1)(note: TB lost to Denver). The Commanders managed to beat the Eagles and Bengals and kept it close with Pittsburgh and Baltimore, it was cool to see them play so well, it's been so long since they won a playoff game (2005). For their last trip to the NFL playoffs they fittingly faced off against Tampa Bay, coming up short versus Mr. Tom Brady, but still demonstrating pluck and tenacity. Both teams let in similar totals in 2024 and scored close to the same amounts as well, they seem pretty evenly matched at the end of the day, this could be an incredible shootout. Baker Mayfield is no stranger to Wild Card Victory in the ye olde explosive and surprising postseason, but could come out overconfident, giving Jayden Daniels room to manoeuvre. It'd be nice to see the struggling Commanders pick up their first playoff win in almost two decades, they were quite prominent in my youth, it's been odd to see them struggling for so long. But I can't forget one freezing winter when a loyal Bucs fan cheered on the Broncos (when no one else did). Picking Tampa Bay in a close one. Irresistible unpredictability.
Minnesota Vikings/Los Angeles Rams: exceedingly cruel to have to play on the road after finishing the year with a 14 and 3 record, yet that's the situation the Vikings find themselves in after falling to the Lions last Sunday. I never really bought into the Vikings this year and kept thinking they'd lose all season long, but they certainly impressed way beyond my expectations and are looking like fearsome contenders. 4 more wins is significant, they have four more wins than the Rams, and their division was one of the strongest ever (the AFC West also very good this year), that's something to take into serious consideration. It's not that the Rams didn't play well, they notably beat Buffalo in a tight shootout, took the Lions to overtime, and even defeated Minnesota 30 to 20 (they could come up big again). They didn't look incredibly good versus teams that weren't playoff contenders though, which suggests they could have taken things more seriously, like they did when intensely challenged. The Vikings hold the playoff edge, beating the Rams 4 times while only losing twice, and lead their all-time head-to-head series also, 27 to 19 to 2. They smoked the Texans and beat the Packers twice, while picking up a win versus Seattle, they haven't won a playoff game since 2019, they must be hungry and out to prove themselves. The Rams have had a ton of playoff success since 2018 however, their coach consistently winning huge significant games with everything on the line with different quarterbacks. Honestly, my gut is saying L.A is going to win this one I don't know why it's not rational, but I'm also suffering from the Keto-flu and have been off in recent years. Nevertheless, my favourite NFC playoff scenario indeed proceeds as follows, the Lions finally make the Super Bowl, after so so many difficult years. And what better way to make it than to defeat Green Bay and Minnesota along the way. Which means the Vikings will have to win this weekend. I'm afraid I'm picking Minnesota.
*Statistics from Wikipedia, Google and The Football Database.
**Go Broncos!