NFL Wildcard Picks

The NFL Wildcard weekend is quickly approaching. Here are my picks:

Cincinnati Bengals/Houston Texans: nice to know that one of these teams will win their first playoff game in quite some time, or ever. Sad that one of them has to lose. The Bengals's last playoff win was in the 1990 Wildcard round against the Houston Oilers. This is the Texans's first playoff appearance and they have no historical facts to draw on. The Bengals played Houston in Week 14 with Houston winning a close one (20-19). The other strong teams Cincinnati played this year were Denver, San Francisco, Tennessee, Baltimore (twice) and Pittsburgh (twice), and they lost every one of these games except one. Houston didn't finish the season well, losing their last three games to Carolina, Tennessee, and Indianapolis, but throughout the year they did beat Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Atlanta, only lost by 7 to New Orleans, and lost to Baltimore as well (Cincinnati won 2 of its last 3). Since Cincinnati lost most of their games this season when playing strong opponents and Houston managed to beat a couple of theirs, and the game is being played in Houston, the smart pick is definitely the Texans, noting that they scored 37 more points than the Bengals this season and allowed 45 fewer (even though they're experiencing a bit of a losing skid). However, something about the fact that the last time Cincinnati won a playoff game it was against another team from Houston makes me think the Bengals will win, and I'm throwing my support behind Cincinnati.

Atlanta Falcons/New York Giants: I like Atlanta in this one. Often upstart teams win the bye one year and lose (Denver vs. Jacksonville [1996], Chicago vs. Carolina [2005]) but then come back the following postseason and win a couple of games (sometimes winning the Super Bowl). I don't think Atlanta will make it to the Super Bowl but they scored more points than the Giants this year and allowed 50 fewer to be scored against them. New York played well this year, almost beating Green Bay, defeating New England, winning 1 of 2 against Philadelphia, and outscoring the Cowboys twice. Atlanta's record is similar with wins against Philadelphia, Detroit, and Tennessee, and a matchup against New Orleans which they only lost by 3. The Giants have a history of losing Wildcard games at home to NFC South opponents, falling to Carolina 23-0 in 2005. This should be a great game and I think Atlanta will win by a slim margin.

Pittsburgh Steelers/Denvers Broncos: if there's one thing Pittsburgh knows how to do in the playoffs it's win. Their record over the course of the last 18 years includes 12 playoff appearances, 4 shots at the Super Bowl (2 wins), 4 Conference Championship losses, and only one Wildcard weekend loss. They're bound to slip up again sometime. Opposing defences have adjusted to Tebow and resolutely shut him down for the last three weeks. It's time for Tebow to regroup, learn from his mistakes, and demonstrate that he has what it takes to win in the NFL playoffs. Look for Denver's defence to make some big plays which give Tebow the opportunity to shine. Denver by 7.

Detroit Lions/New Orleans Saints: last year Seattle reminded everyone that even though the Saints won the Super Bowl two years ago, they're still New Orleans with one of the worst playoff histories of any NFL franchise. But I think that humiliating loss brought an end to New Orleans's curse and after the way they played this season they should be able to handle the Lions. Detroit's a solid team who picked up wins versus Dallas, Chicago, Denver, and San Diego this year, and they've proved that their offence is explosive and knows how to win. But New Orleans has proven that they have one of the best offences on record, they're playing at home, unfathomably lost to the Seahawks last year, and could probably beat Green Bay. It's nice to see the Lions back in the playoffs and I hope they continue to build and make a run at the Super Bowl in the next couple of years, but they'll have to wait until teams like New Orleans have gone the way of Indianapolis if they have to play them first before charging deep into the postseason.