Friday, January 12, 2024

Super Wild Card Weekend Picks

Cleveland Browns/Houston Texans: who hasn't been unreasonably impressed with Joey Flacco's mind-blowing comeback, the Browns desperate for a QB mid-season, the Super Bowl Champion Flacco signing up and winning games?! I was glad to see the Broncos defeat Cleveland 29 to 12 in Week 12, but didn't want to see Cleveland lose their QB, the Broncos likely still would have won if he had played the entire game. Nevertheless, it must have seemed bleak for Browns fans especially after only having picked up one playoff win since forming the new team, and looking like a solid threat this year, even coming close to beating Baltimore the second time round. But even with all the Joey Flacco comebacks in the world there's still a remarkable team in Houston, who fought and struggled hardcore throughout 2023, to make the playoffs for the first time in 4 years. C. J. Stroud making the most of his rookie debut, winning some huge games along the way, including an improbable win over the Broncos, it was close right up 'til the end. They're pretty even with points for and against, some slight differences but nothing major. Can the rookie sensation defeat the resurgent legend and begin franchising fascination of his own? Or will Mr. Flacco's never-say-die exceptionality pick up another playoff win and herald famished triumph? They played in Week 16 and the Browns won 36 to 22 (with Flacco). I'd like to see both teams win. Picking Cleveland because they've had so much less success (since reforming in 1999).  They also had a really tough division this year (two losses vs. Baltimore, split vs. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati [the second game vs. the Bengals didn't really matter] [the Browns actually beat Baltimore once, my mistake]). 

Miami Dolphins/Kansas City Chiefs: it's tough to say. Do extracurricular phenomenons give the opposing team an edge? The Chiefs didn't play as well this year although they certainly had a lot of media attention, and I liked how they merged popular music and sport in an entertaining unprecedented (?) spectacle. It was cool to see how Kelce and Swift became bona fide American pop culture royalty, and even though I'm a die hard Broncos fan, Denver defeating the Chiefs 24 to 9 in Week 8, I can still appreciate what Swift and Kelce mean to romantic fans. Does the relationship give Chiefs' opponents an edge, however, does it motivate them even more to crush adorable Kansas City? This might be the case. From what I've taken in from watching sports for many a year, you don't want any distractions on the field, any drama that may lead to complications. You want to be 1000% focused without anything tearing you away from the moment. The trash talk must be unbearable every play, but Mahomes is the best QB in the league, and if the Chiefs can focus on the Beatles, there's no doubt they could excel this postseason (is Swift the biggest musical act in the States right now?). Just remember that when the Beatles had the whole world pressuring them to do well, when pop culture put an astronomical amount of pressure on them, they responded with some of the best music the world's ever encountered, you're that freakin' talented, I'd focus on that this Saturday. Although the Dolphins are pretty solid and haven't won a playoff game in over 20 years. Brady lost twice in the Wild Card round with New England (once vs. Flacco). But look at the risks Kansas City is taking for America! Picking the Chiefs. In an incredibly close game. That is one brutal weather forecast. I've worked in weather like that. But never in a freakin' t-shirt. Crazy.

Pittsburgh Steelers/Buffalo Bills: I think Buffalo is in the best postseason position they've been in in years. No one expects them to win. The media pressure is totally off. There's no doubt it's nice to have people saying nice things about your team, but taking them seriously can lead to error. Thus, like the pressure was off Cincinnati when they faced the Bills last year, the pressure's off Buffalo vs. Pittsburgh this weekend, although the Steelers aren't expected to win either (I imagine), and Mike Tomlin's no stranger to the post-season (no one's expected to win!). Mason Rudolph can make quite the five-year-plan for himself if he pulls off the unexpected upset, and he's been playing well as of late, he isn't cornered, but has nothing to lose. Pittsburgh can be cold and brutal in the winter too so home field may not generate an advantage (it may be brutal again this Sunday in Buffalo), although the Bills have won three straight Wild Card games in Orchard Park, and must be fuming after losing in the snow to the Bengals. Buffalo's been in the trenches all season with a horrendously gruelling schedule, still picking up 11 wins along the way, falling to the Broncos on Monday Night in week 10. A schedule like that may be daunting but it keeps you playoff ready all the time. It's like they've been playing playoff ball since September. And have put on quite the spellbinding show. Pittsburgh hasn't had it easy either, I've already mentioned that the AFC North was tough. The only teams they played this year that never seemed like playoff contenders were Las Vegas, Tennessee, Arizona (loss), and New England (loss). They had a rough go of it too. The Steelers hold a 2 to 1 postseason edge over Buffalo but they haven't played in January since 1995. Hoping it's a close game but am I really, I must admit, I am really not. Hoping the Bills make a statement. Picking Buffalo on Sunday.

Green Bay Packers/Dallas Cowboys: surprised to see Green Bay back in the playoffs so soon after Aaron Rodgers' left. Against the Packs' old coach Mike McCarthy no less. This post-season is writing itself! Both teams have reached outstanding heights in the NFL playoffs, Green Bay with 4 Super Bowl wins, Dallas having picked up 5. That's 9 Super Bowls between 'em note that most franchises go nuts with one, or even an appearance means a lot, it does, it's a huge thing. There's the weird coachy jinx that may make a difference (in my head), it may be strange for McCarthy to play against his old team, not consciously, I'm sure his mind will be 100% focused on winning the game, but the subconscious old school remnants of his long tenure coaching in Green Bay, which included a Super Bowl win, may unconsciously muck things up, although according to Google, his hometown's Pittsburgh, and Green Bay, led by McCarthy, defeated Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XLV (Manning had trouble vs. the Colts when he was in Denver [it's understandable]). Nevertheless, Dallas and Green Bay have a long playoff history that's seen them meet 8 freakin' times, the games split 4 wins apiece, the Pack winning the two most recent (2014 and 2016). I'd like to see Dak Prescott and the Cowboys have more playoff success since they haven't made it past the 2nd round in almost thirty years, but Green Bay comes up short in January often and has lost in the NFC Championship Game 4 times since winning the Super Bowl (it'd be nice to see them win too). They lost to the Seahawks, Falcons and Buccaneers which means they struggle in big games versus teams without much post-season success, but they also lost to San Francisco, and when I was in early high school, they were the only team that could beat Dallas. If Jordan Love can win his first post-season game only one measly year after Aaron Rodgers left, that would be pretty huge, and he has impressed this season (although he came up short vs. Denver who beat Green Bay 19 to 17 in Week 7). He throws the ball exceptionally well at times. A win against the Cowboys in Dallas seems impossible however. After looking at the Cowboys' schedule, they didn't lose at home this season. Not once. While I was watching them play Detroit, an announcer mentioned that up until that point they were averaging 40 points a game at home as well. Those are pretty crazy odds for a team whose defence also let in 35 fewer points than Green Bay's. Always love seeing a Packers playoff win. But the odds are too stacked in the Cowboys' favour. Picking Dallas at home. I'm picking these home teams too easily

Los Angeles Rams/Detroit Lions: I would just imagine it's back to day one. The first Super Bowl Era Season. No history, no rivalries, no jealousies, no nothin'. Just formidable Detroit Lions football throughout the entire freakin' game. No concentration on the media. No qualms about sensation. Just preparing like mad and executing impeccably. I have no doubt the Lions can win. Picking Detroit! Go Lions Go!

Philadelphia Eagles/Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I don't know what happened to the Eagles in 2023 but they suddenly fell apart when they were playing San Francisco, and haven't really done much since. It's odd because before that game they beat Minnesota, Tampa (25 to 11), the Rams, Miami, Dallas, Kansas City and Buffalo (with an amazing last minute and overtime comeback), and seemed like a for sure Super Bowl contender. That's not to say they're out of it or anything, but it's a shock nevertheless, but if I remember correctly, the last time Baltimore won the Super Bowl, with Joey Flacco as quarterback, they lost their last four games of the season, before turning it around in the playoffs (blackbirds singing). Tampa will naturally defy them as the Eagles attempt to punish them at home, the Bucs' defence having let in more than a hundred fewer points this year, their offence having scored 85 fewer. They've actually met in the playoffs 5 times with Tampa holding the edge 3 to 2, the Bucs having defeated them during 4 of their last 5 meetings (not this season), their lifetime series tied 11 apiece. Normally, I'd pick the team that played really well last year and at the beginning of the season (😌), it's difficult not to pick Philadelphia since I'm so used to seeing them play well. I'm also taking way too many home teams which is always a bad sign, but if I'm way off and several away teams win, the playoffs will be much more exciting. Tampa's defence is playing exceptionally well and Philly has blown it versus several recent opponents, but can the Bucs still score enough to win, can they regenerate that legendary 2020 magic? I'm betting they can although they did lose on Monday (vs. the Eagles) and Thursday Night (Bills). Picking the Bucs at home. Defence wins championships. 

*Stats from Wikipedia and The Football Database.  

**The Bills/Steelers game was switched to Monday. 

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