Minnesota Vikings/San Francisco 49ers: the 49ers came out of nowhere to take control of the NFC this season, moving the ball well on the ground, only losing three games by a combined total of 13 points. They were 5 and 1 versus their division, even though the Rams and Cardinals put up a fight, and almost lost twice to the Seahawks, it'd be cool to see them play again in the Conference Finals. But they'll have to get through Minnesota first (it'd be cool to see Minnesota play Green Bay in the Conference Finals too), whose defence showed up last Sunday, holding the high flying Saints to a paltry 20, their offence scoring 26 in defiance. The Vikings and 49ers are pretty even all-time, Minnesota holding a 21-19-1 edge during the regular season, San Francisco up 4-1 in the playoffs. It might be close, if the Divisional Round's anything like Wild Card Weekend, the 49ers picking up 13 wins during the season, because they won many close games. Against strong teams like the Vikings (they didn't play unfortunately). If Minnesota held New Orleans to twenty points and beat them in overtime, it's possible their defence could do the same to San Francisco, who didn't score much more often than New Orleans, and haven't seen playoff action for 6 years. Cousins came to play last week and it was great to see (during World Junior Hockey Championship commercials and intermissions, plus the fourth quarter), but can he hang in there for another slugfest, and come closer to bringing Minnesota's first Super Bowl home? I'm hoping he can, but I'm pretty unlucky in close games this year, so if it's close, I imagine that if I've picked you, you're going to lose. Which doesn't change the fact that the 49ers were too good not to pick versus Minnesota this year. Picking San Francisco. Hoping the Vikings come back for the win.
Tennessee Titans/Baltimore Ravens: Tennessee impressed last Saturday night with a big upset win versus the Patriots. The biggest win for the Titans since 1999, with a most impressive goal line stand. They ran the ball quite well, and had one crazy 75 yard or so drive for a touchdown where they didn't even throw a pass, if I remember correctly, which is what I believe is referred to as old school football, although my knowledge of football history is by no means exhaustive. If they can run the ball like they did versus New England and keep the Ravens out of the end zone like Minnesota versus New Orleans, there's a chance they could pull off the upset, imagine Tennessee versus Houston in the Conference Finals?, a viable distinct improbability. Baltimore was really freakin' good this year. They've won 12 in a row and crushed Houston and the L.A Rams in Weeks 11 and 12 respectively (L.A was fighting for the playoffs). They also held on to beat San Francisco and Buffalo, picked up two divisional wins versus Pittsburgh, defeated Seattle by 14, and New England 37 to 20. Their defence let in the third fewest points in the AFC, but their schedule was much tougher than Buffalo or New England's, and they scored the most points in the American Football Conference, racking up 80 more than second place Kansas City (who beat them). I'm not familiar with what their games were like this season, but sometimes if a team wins a bunch of games in a row, and never trails or has to come from behind to win, you can spook them if you go up by 14 or so, and make them make mistakes as they struggle with unfamiliar circumstances. It would be cool if the Titans could pull it off, but Baltimore is playing exceptionally well, and I didn't like how Tennessee wasted time versus the Patriots in the fourth last Saturday, I think if you're going to beat someone, you should beat them on the field, not with cheesy delay of game penalties. Hoping it's a close game. Picking the AFC leading Ravens.
Houston Texans/Kansas City Chiefs: Houston caught fire last Saturday during the third and dug out of 16 to 0 hole to win by a field goal in overtime. Buffalo was ready to kick one too but picked up a penalty that drove them out of range. I tend to think Buffalo lost that game as opposed to Houston won it. I've never seen a team self-destruct like that. Huge bummer for Bills fans. Not so bad if you're rooting for Houston. Sometimes teams who struggle and pull out an unexpected win late in the game (unexpected because they were losing by so much, not because they weren't expected to win) show up for four complete quarters the following week, driven by the exceptional breathless reprieve, and are rather difficult to defeat consequently. Houston's been looking for an extended playoff run for quite some time, having made the playoffs four of the last five seasons and never competed for the Conference Championship. Kansas City's freakin' good though and have won 6 in a row, defeating Baltimore, New England, Minnesota, and Denver twice (😡) along the way, although they did lose to the Texans by 7 in Week 6, and Indianapolis and Tennessee beat them too. They did not play well against the AFC South. Plus they have a terrible home playoff record that I imagine Patrick Mahomes wants to rectify, they did finally win at Arrowhead last year, but came up short the following week versus the Patriots (in overtime). Andy Reid has had plenty of Divisional Round success in days of yore (and last season) and it would be cool to see him finally win the Super Bowl, assuming the Broncos don't knock Kansas City out of the playoffs, next season perhaps, if he doesn't win this year, and the Texans have never won in that same round, so it seems like the Chiefs could certainly win, even if the Texans consider them ill-fated. But I think Houston's due and am therefore picking the Texans. Note that I think it'll be close. And I'm terrible at picking close games.
Seattle Seahawks/Green Bay Packers: both of these teams have had serious playoff success in recent years, and have kept things generally competitive, and even if they haven't made it back to the Super Bowl for a while, since 2010 they've got 19 playoff wins between them. They faced off in the Conference Championship in 2014, which saw the Packers blow a huge fourth quarter lead without much time left to eventually fall to Seattle in overtime. That comeback was a huge surprise. And likely hasn't been forgotten. While watching Green Bay play this season, I noticed that announcers were rather critical of the team, quick to point out the various ways in which they had struggled throughout the year, even though they were in the process of picking up 13 wins. They played some strong teams (and some not so great teams) and apart from blowing it versus San Francisco generally came out on top, picking up notable wins versus Denver, Minnesota (twice), Kansas City, and Dallas, falling to the Eagles earlier on 34-27. I don't know what the weather will be like at Lambeau this Sunday, but it's been a mild Winter so far in Central and Eastern Canada, although recent days have been freezing, and the forecast is rough for this weekend. I used to think Green Bay held a huge advantage playing at home in January until Atlanta beat them in 2002, and the Giants came out on top in 2011, but I still imagine there are other stadiums where the Seahawks would rather play, even if they're ready to play anywhere at a moment's notice. They handled Philadelphia last weekend but didn't blow them away, and backup quarterback Josh McCown led drives deep into their territory with ease, although the Eagles struggled when they were within range. Both of these teams are solid, both of them know how to win, both of them blow it at times, and both of them are fourth quarter threats. I'm glad one of them will play again next week and am sad to know one of their postseasons will end, maybe I won't pick the wrong team every time a game's close this year, picking the Pack, picking Green Bay by 7. It would still be cool to see Seattle play San Francisco next week. Or to watch Green Bay and Minnesota take the field once more. Love divisional Conference Championship matchups. Probably a sign there's no way that'll happen.
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