NFL Playoff Picks, the Divisional Round

Cincinnati Bengals/Tennessee Titans: the Titans had the best record in the AFC this year, but it's difficult to say if they're the best team, since their schedule included 2 games apiece with Jacksonville and Houston, one game of which they happened to lose (plus a loss to the Jets in overtime in week 4). Then again, every other team they played except Seattle had a winning record, and they managed to crush Kansas City, only falling to the Steelers, Cardinals and Patriots, defeating the Bills, Colts (twice), New Orleans, San Francisco, the Rams, and Miami, to pick up the bye.  That's an impressive season. I by no means watched or followed them play every week but at times I tuned into their games, and I remember seeing them down by fourteen twice, before coming back to lockdown victory. It seemed like they struggled to get started in those games but once they dug in they couldn't be beat, a strategy which may prove troublesome versus the Bengals, who scored consistently last weekend versus Las Vegas. Cincinnati also outlasted the Chiefs and also lost to the Jets, Jets fans must be loving this game, a silver lining for a difficult year. The Bengals had a tough schedule too and (as mentioned last week) beat the Ravens and Steelers both twice, plus the Raiders (twice including the playoffs) and Broncos, the Chargers were the only team to beat them from the AFC West. They've never met in the playoffs so this one has no history to speak of, but they've played 5 times since 2008, with the Bengals picking up 3 victories. This game could go either way and the offensive and defensive stats from both teams are close, Tennessee's been there and done that before, but the Bengals are currently surging. I don't know what's better, to play in a Wild Card game or rest for a week? The Bengals won't be rusty. Picking Cincinnati on the road. 

San Francisco 49ers/Green Bay Packers: the Pack, back at it, after another outstanding year, Green Bay setting the bar too high each season for their determined recalcitrant opposition. Once again they emerge victorious week after stunning incredible week, how do they maintain such a degree of excellence one awe-inspiring season after a-freakin-nother?  They lost in week 1 on a fluke and then laidback during week 18, and other than that only fell to Kansas City along with the perennially defiant Vikings.  Rodgers looks so relaxed out there while he's playing like everything's under control with no worries at all, a drive may stall here and there now and then but then it's like he just subsequently marches unchallenged down the field. The 49ers have challenged Green Bay definitively picking up 2 playoff wins versus the Pack in the last 10 years, and looked solid versus Dallas last weekend, although they only scored 7 points in the second half. Their defence played well and stifled the Cowboys who produced 530 points during the regular season, but Dallas did have six games versus Washington, Philadelphia, and the New York Giants. The Pack defeated San Francisco early on 30 to 28, their offensive and defensive stats are similar, with a slight edge for feisty Green Bay.  I think it's time the Pack dug in deep no nonsense uniformly focused on Super Bowl victory, this is their ninth time in the playoffs since winning in 2010, they usually have a great record, but haven't made it past the Conference Championships since then (there was a span of 9 years between Manning's Super Bowl wins in Indianapolis and Denver). I'm wondering if the 49ers are like the New York Giants whom I didn't pick once when they won the Super Bowl in 2011, and are going to keep moving forward no matter how strong their formidable opposition. I doubt the Pack will have trouble scoring this Saturday though and San Fran will need more than 7 in the second half to win. Hoping it's an intense close game. Picking Green Bay once again. (Still managed to see 4 episodes of Elementary last Saturday).

Los Angeles Rams/Tampa Bay Buccaneers: both Tampa and the Rams won convincingly last weekend and both seemed fuelled with indomitable contention, who may emerge victorious when such forces clash is a matter of urgent hypothetical serendipity. Tom Brady remains undefeated in the playoffs as a Buc and has won 7 Super Bowls to date, and continues to resoundingly mystify as he looks like he might play till he's 50. Tampa was even cool last weekend and didn't run up the score when it was clear they'd won. No offence to Philadelphia, they put up a strong fight, and gained valuable playoff experience.  Brady's only won his last 9 Divisional Round games (only 9) since falling to the Jets in 2010 (and Broncos in 2005), winning 14 Divisional Round games in total, how is that even possible? He's at home where he won the Super Bowl last year with Gronkowski and a solid defence, it's not looking good for Rams fans, even if they beat Tampa both this season and last. There is one possibility though, a possibility I've been considering for a while, and it's surprising that the Bucs are playing the Rams, since I theorized this potentiality soon after Stafford was traded to L.A. For me, it makes sense that last year Brady defeated Brees, then Rodgers, then Mahomes on his way to his 7th (that's 7th) Super Bowl win, if you're going to do one of the most impressive things in sports ever, you may as well beat the toughest competition while doing so. But whereas it makes sense that Brady would beat three Super Bowl winners who make the playoffs every year and compete on his way to Super Bowl victory, it also makes sense that he would lose to someone who spent their career with a struggling team only to win his first playoff game after suddenly being traded in 2021 (only Paris can defeat Achilles). Thus, it may not make much rational sense, but it makes perfect football sense to me, that Stafford is poised to beat Brady, I'm picking the Rams, no question. Sorry I can't keep picking Tampa, I'll always remember my snow shovelling days. But I can't deny Matthew Stafford. Nor the impeccable determined Von Miller. 

Buffalo Bills/Kansas City Chiefs: that would be cool if Allen and Mahomes met regularly in the playoffs for the next 15 years.  Like Manning vs. Brady, it makes things rather exciting.  On paper the Bills have the better team or at least their defence let in less points this year, both their offence's scoring an almost identical number, Kansas City picking up one more win. Buffalo beat the Chiefs early on by a score of 38 to 20, before KC picked up steam and won 9 of its last 10, who knows what was wrong early on. Kansas City won with ease in last year's Conference Championship game, but that was another postseason, and Buffalo looks much better this year, more seasoned, more confident, more resilient. Both offences can generate, as the saying goes, a shit ton of points quickly and easily, and Buffalo made sure I had a lot to not smoke about last weekend, making the most of the brutal temperature. KC didn't struggle much either and also scored more than 40 points, I hope both these offences let loose on Sunday, and it doesn't turn out to be one of those counterintuitive defensive struggles. Both these teams have played plenty of rivals who made the postseason this year, winning some and losing others, it's like they should really play a best out of 5, but this Sunday comes down to one game. I'd expect Kansas City to complete short passes and run until Buffalo's defence adjusts after which they'll complete 25 yard passes at will and keep changing things up as Buffalo tries to adapt. I imagine Buffalo will keep things edgy with Allen poised to run at times, perhaps stalling for a minute or two, before swiftly picking up rapid touchdowns.  I hope it doesn't disappoint either way, I suppose the Chiefs have home field. Doesn't mean I'm not picking the Bills. Picking Buffalo to win on the road.  

*Stats from Wikipedia, NFL.com, the Football Database, and Google, as always.